Gaius Terentius Varro, ordered the charge. The order itself was the tipping point that would lead to the greatest slaughter of Roman Soliders that the most powerful army of the ancient world would endure. Varro foolishly assumed that Carthaginian General Hannibal Barcca was out of position. He was not, and deployed the first successful double-envelopment in Military History.
The tipping point is the moment in time when it is do or die, put up or shut up, pee or get off the pot. The beginning of the tipping point for the Richt regime will be this Saturday in Athens. Like war itself no single battle will determine the results of this tipping point. The fate of those involved may not be known until October 29th, or November 12th, or as late as November 26th in Atlanta. Mississippi State is a tough call. They are very well coached. They are on the low end in terms of talent in the SEC. They run an offense that will be a headache for the 3-4. They lost to Auburn who lost to Clampsun, which tells us nothing really. They gave LSU, the best team in the land, all they wanted. In July I would have said this is a solid lock for a loss. Now I am not so sure.
I picked the Wednesday before this game to lay this post out for a reason. I thought we would be 2-2 at this point and I thought this would be at the tipping point. If you listened to the Podcast I did with the Leather Helmet Blog you heard some of what I am going to say here. I don't do too many Podcasts because I sound somewhat reasonable in them and no one wants a world without an over the top CCRider in it. There would be no Skeletor to He-Man, no Joker to Batman, no Tammy 1 and Tammy 2 to Ron Swanson....there must be a villain, right?
I am going to step out of character for this series of posts that I am calling "The Complexity of the Richt Dilemma". I will put on hold the calling that has been laid before my feet. I shall for this series of posts cease to be the dashing, debonair, square jawed, leader of the Cold Blooded Sausage Making Movement. I will allow just a glimpse at the hem of the robe of the Mighty Oz. I will be serious and I will speak not as The Rider but as a life long fan of the Red and Black Attack. I shall speak as one who can still remember looking at the scoreboard and seeing:
Georgia-59 William &Mary- 24.
At eight years old I knew not of who this William and Mary was but I did know this: The Georgia Bulldogs are the greatest football team in the world and they can beat anyone. Later I would come to realize what a win over William and Mary was really worth, but on that October day all was right with the world and the Georgia Bulldogs were unstoppable. Of course I would go on to endure Ray Goff during my formative years and the disappointment of Jim Donnan. It all seemed different with Richt. We won the games we usually lost (except for Florida) not just the games we were supposed to win. I could smell a National Title. We got so close only to be so very far away.
It is that different feel that so many people can't let go of. It is that smell of a National Title that we got from 05-the beginning of 08. It is that closeness. Many fear that we will never see that closeness again should we go in a different direction. In their minds falling short is better than falling at a great distance. So what are the options for a fanbase that wants success so badly, has all the tools to gain that success, but is holding on to some warm feelings of times now forever gone?
We are 2-2 at the 1/3 point of Richt's 11th season. We have four types of games left:
1. Sure Fire Wins: New Mexico State and Kentucky
2. Games We Should Win: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and GT
3. Games We Could Win: Mississippi State, and Auburn
4. Games In Which There is No Evidence To Show We Have a Chance to Win: Florida
If the sure fire wins are wins then we are 4-2.
If the should win games are wins then we are 7-2
If the could win games are loses we are 7-4
If we lose to Florida again we are 7-5
Of course things could always take a hard turn right or left. We could win 6 of 8 to finish 8-4. We could beat Florida but lose to Vandy. We are in what experts call a "fluid situation".
All summer long people wanted a number. What is the magic number for Richt to stay? What is the magic number for Richt to go? Well here are the possible options:
a) Georgia runs the table- 10-2 (a spot in the SEC title game): Likelihood- 0.00%
b) Georgia wins 7 of 8 the lone loss is to Florida: Likelihood- 1%
c) Georgia wins 7 of 8 but beats Florida: Likelihood- 1%
d) Georgia loses two more one of those is to Florida- Likelihood- 25%
e) Georgia loses two more one of those is not to Florida- Likelihood- 5%
f) Georgia loses three or more-Likelihood- 68%
Option a) and f) are easy. Option a) nothing changes, option f) everyone gets fired. Options b) through e) are much harder and place us in a type of limbo. If we fall into that limbo McGarity will have four options: