Da' Dream Makin' Cold Blooded Sausage

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Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Picks guaranteed* to win you money

Last year, we finished the year pretty well, hitting far better than 50%, and I think closer to 65% (I'm lazy, and don't want to go to the archives to check).  But this is a new year, not last year, so we're starting fresh.  Loyal reader TxBaller will chime in with his comments and picks for the week, feel free to do the same if you dare lay your opinion on the line for the rest of us to point and laugh at later.  So, this being the first week of the year, I'll lay my rules.  You can, of course, pick different, but for consistency sake, I always pick the top 10 games (from starting with team #1 down to whatever in the AP poll), and use the lines off ESPN (since no gambling websites pay us to pimp them).  I'll add half points if necessary, so no pushes out of me.  So, for this week, it's the season opener and everyone plays.  But, #8 Michigan is playing #2 Bama in Jerrahworld, while #7 Florida St (Murray St), #10 Arkansas (Jacksonville St), and #12 Wisconsin (Northern Iowa) are playing 1-AA teams, so Vegas has no lines for those 3.  So, that knocks us all the way down to #14 as our 10th highest ranked team in a game with a line.  We start there, and work our way to the Southern Cal/Hawai'i game.  Below are your weekly picks guaranteed* to win you money.

#14 Clemson (-3 1/2) vs. Auburn (in Atlanta)-The Chik-Fil-A classic, or one of combined with Friday nights tapioca fight between NC St and Tennessee.  This one should be the good one, and compete with the Jerry Jones Classic for eyeballs Saturday night.  Clemson doesn't have Sammy Watkins, but the "we're not friends, just acquiantances" of Dabo have bought several other fine talents for him to waste on 8 or 9 win seasons.  Auburn, while still struggling to come back from the salary cap hit they took under Newton and Fairley, doesn't have as much ability as the other Tigers, particularly at QB.  Because of that, we'd lean towards Clemson.  But Auburn did hire Van Gorder, and that should pay immediate dividends for them.  Without Watkins, Auburn wins, let alone covers.

#13 Michigan St (-6 1/2) vs. #24 Boise St (Friday night)-This one should be a good one.  Two top 25 teams, half of our losses last year, under the lights of Friday night (where people should be watching local high school football), hopefully, we'll be treated to another classic like last year's Friday appetizer of TCU/Baylor.  Both Boise and Sparty have big unknowns replacing their QBs and several others.  The question essentially is, do you think Michigan St can get the job done at home, and how well does Boise replace pretty much their entire offense?  While Boise may be strong by the end of the year, they won't be at the start.  Take the Spartans, big win.

#11 West Virginia (-24 1/2) vs. Marshall-There's gonna be some couch burning one way or the other after this one.  As much as we think West Virginia will be a points orgy under Holgorson, this one has all the makings of a killer.  The Mountaineers are highly ranked, and score by the bushel.  But this is an underrated rivalry game, and Marshall has some talent.  West Virginia will pull away late, but not by enough.  Keep the points, go Thundering Herd.

#9 South Carolina (-6 1/2) @ Vandy (Thursday night)-Another season opener on Thursday, another Gamecock game.  We love the idea behind this, and think Spurrier is a genius for essentially letting ESPN slot him first every year.  Primtime, everyone watching, so the team gets the big stage, big recognition, and a big environment, with a few extra days to prepare for week 2 (which was usually us).  It's a great way to start the season.  Vanderbilt is supposedly undergoing a culture change with Franklin.  And while they made a bowl game, we still see the same mediocre at best Commodores.  South Carolina, is lean, mean and ready to rock.  Their DBs are an issue, but I doubt Jordan Rogers can do a thing to exploit that.  Clowney will lay him on his ass, and Lattimore will rumble for well over a hundo.  Chickens triple that spread, take South Cakalaki.

#6 Georgia (-37 1/2) vs. Buffalo-I don't normally get Georgia games, oh goodie.  I hate betting the Dawgs.  I'm already emotionally invested to an unhealthy level on the outcome, why tie money too?  But here we are, nice and high.  Buffalo just lost their best player.  Don't over think this.  They will struggle in the heat, as well as simply being inferior players.  Murray has a cake walk, and the front 7 should just save everyone the time and effort and simply line up in the Bulls backfield.  We roll them, and cover easy.  Take the Dawgs.

#5 Oregon (-35 1/2) vs. Arkansas St-The Ducks vs Gus Malzahn, what God got blown to give us this sweet, sweet nectar?  Lots of plays, and lots of points.  Expect the over/under of 68 to get topped by the middle of the 3rd quarter.  That is a lot of points, especially against a team where they may score 30+.  But Chip Kelly has a machine up in Eugene, cycling through great dual threat QB and elusive play maker TB one after the other.  Replacing their stars from last year won't be an issue, and they score 70+.  Take Oregon, give the points.

#4 Oklahoma  (-31 1/2) @ UTEP-Is Mike Price still at UTEP?  Interesting.  And the Sooners are beat to all sorts of hell apparently with numerous players lost to injury.  And for some reason, they are playing this game in El Paso?  I don't know what the hell Stoops is thinking with this one.  Yeah, they'll win.  And Landry Jones probably has some great numbers to start a Heisman campaign.  But UTEP covers.  Keep the points, it's just too many.

#3 LSU (-43 1/2) vs. North Texas-Another wide, wide spread.  We don't care.  LSU has an OL and RBs that can ride towards the end zone with Mettenberger doing little more than handing off.  Even without the worst nickname in football, their defense is still loaded with beasts.  A new CB doesn't matter much when your DL is giving a QB 3.5 seconds max before hitting the dirt.  43 points?  In a game that should be pick your points to whatever we feel like being nice and letting you get?  Yeah, give the points, take LSU.

#2 Alabama (-13 1/2) vs. #8 Michigan (in Dallas)-The opening weekends marquee matchup.  Michigan turned it around in a big way under Hoke.  And Denard Robinson has improved as a passer.  And while Saban's D reloads as always, their DBs are somewhat suspect.  Now, being Saban, those DBs will be as good as it gets by game 6, but a bit unready game 1.  Robinson makes them pay just enough to cover, as Michigan loses by 10.  Keep the points, take the Wolverines.

#1 Southern Cal (-40 1/2) vs. Hawai'i-As far as we know, the Rainbow Warriors have turned to pot since June Jones left the islands.  Southern Cal has some depth issues, but the talent is as good as ever.  Kiffin can fuck it up, and will along the way, but not against their western visitors.  40 is a lot, and I'm tempted to keep the points, but don't do it.  They struggle a bit early, and Barkley plays in to the 4th, but that means he gets on a roll in the second half too.  They'll make you sweat, but still cover.  Give the points, take the Trojans.


*guarantee not valid in Georgia, Florida, Texas, Tennessee, Utah, Virginia, Ohio, Washington, Alaska, China, Mozambique, or for any human, monkey, or brain slug located within 500,000,000 miles of the center of the Earth. 

10 comments:

  1. Well, here we go - head to head.

    CLEM -3.5 AUBURN: Unfortunately, the double edged sword applies here - non caucasian QB's bring an extremely volatile situation to the GA Dome. Clempson racked-up 600+ yards on the Tigers/War Eagles/Plainsmen last year - ain't happening this year with you know who at the defensive helm....even if Willie is his side kick. Expect a low scoring affair and a late Auburn outright win. Aub +3.5

    MICH ST -6.5 BOISE: this is not the same Boise that laid the smack down on our beloved R&B last Labor Day weekend. Boise will be breaking in a new QB and a multitude of others; in particular on D. Mich St had GREAT momentum to end their season - and that should carry over. Mich St should roll here and cover the 6.5 with a double digit win. Mich St -6.5

    WVA -24.5 MARSHALL: Really? Gino will destroy Marshall by himself. He will set the early pace as a legit heisman candidate and strike fear in the Big 12 for upcoming opponents. WVA is 75-3 in theri last 78 when scoring more than 30 - this will be an ugly rout. WVA -24.5

    SOUCAR -6.5 VANDY: 2010 - SC 21-7 2011 - SC 21-3. You answer the question....is SC's defense better or worse than last year? Allow me....BETTER! Lattimore back - check! Clowney better - check! Connor Shaw better - check! Vandy returns a salty D - but Jordan Rodgers ain't no Aaron Rodgers. I'm personally laying the 6.5 and juicing my guy $5. This is a major BALLER play for the weekend. SC -6.5

    UGA -37.5 BUFF: Don't get pissed but Richt never lays the hammer to the children of the poor. GA wins big - but Buff covers the number. An uninspired and boring game. But at least a win - more than can be said the previous two opening years. Buff +37.5

    OREGON -35.5 ARKST: MARCUS MARIOTA....remember this name. I personally think Oregon will represent in the BCS championship - not USC (don't believe the hype). There is no way in hell ARKST/Gus can hang with the high powered Chip Kelly O. Oregon -65

    CHOKLAHOMA -31.5 UTEP: Unlike Coach Softie, Bob Stoops will lay the wood right out of the gate. UTEP, famous for their fans getting hand jobs in the foothills of the Sun Bowl stadium (see youtube) is given no chance in this match-up. L Jones wil destroy UTEP.....be hyped ot the heavens....and CHOKE somewhere between week 4 and week 6 (Like that CC?). OU -31.5

    LSU -43.5 DENTON, TX: Do I really need to comment? Mett, who was the better QB two years ago in the spring game I witnessed in Athens (contrary to The Senator's belief), will be sitting by the 3rd quarter. LSU -55

    ALA -13.5 MICHIGAN: I love Brady Hoke. Could have been a hell of a pick-up for UGA. But, ALA is way too talented here. Always take the honky QB v the brotha in high profile games. Will be very interesting to see how Saban/Smart's defense plays minus all those first round picks that headed to the MFL. Eddie Lacy will have a huge night rushing for the tide...and once again, the defending national champ will cover the number in their opening game the following season. ALA -13.5

    USC -40.5 Hawaii: Kiffin will run up the score. Hawaii will be held scoreless. USC -72

    #31 - I e-mailed you earlier in the week. I'll keep up with our head to head. Winner gets his choice of a gallon of brown liquor.

    Other games of interest:

    Mike Leach surprises BYU - love me some Pirate!

    UCLA hangs 50 on Rice down in Houston - love me some Jim Mora, Jr.

    ---TXBaller

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    1. Good deal Tx.

      And forgot my lock for the week out of that 10. Like you, I think South Carolina rolls Vandy out the gate tonight. Start the season strong with a big chicken.

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    2. 3-7, not a good week for you either Tex. Both of us need to step it up.

      --
      Sanchez

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  2. "Keep the points, take the Wolverines."

    Wow! turning your wetback on the SEC I see! I am sure that Michigan's one good player on offense will really light it up against Bama's eleven great players on D.

    Take the Bammeroids to cover! Trust me little Nicky will want to make a statement in this one.

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    Replies
    1. We'll see Saturday evening CC. Michigan's OL are usually stout, so I think they can give him enough time to exploit a young secondary. Bama wins, but Michigan does enough to cover if their defense can withstand what should be an amazing Tide OL.

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  3. 1-9. Looks like last year will even out this one.

    --
    Sanchez

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  4. Chin-up Sanchez, the season is young and there are many games (opportunities) to come.

    ----TXBaller

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  5. I would like to add that despite my homer tendencies I correctly called the UGA game.

    Norman, B Smiff, cRob, Andrews and Theus all liabilities. A lot of praise yesterday and today for #61 - but all I saw was chip blocks and a ow hanging jersey (slob).

    You not going to like my pick this weekend - especially Disney/Richtophiles.

    ----TXBaller

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  6. Low hanging jersey

    Why all of a sudden our guys have no neatness??

    ---TXBaller

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  7. They play SandMan....we play teen age waste land (gay)...

    We'll never win with such SOFT intro.

    ----TXBaller

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