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Thursday, October 4, 2012

Picks Guaranteed* to Win You Money, Week 6

So, a 7-3 performance two weeks ago got us within striking distance of .500 on the year (17-23), but will my personal bye week last Saturday refresh the PGtWYM for a strong second half run, or make things rusty before a return to the first few weeks' struggles? Only one way to find out, and that's make 10 Picks Guaranteed* to Win You Money. If you follow, you know the deal, the 10 highest ranked games/teams in the AP poll, using lines taken from ESPN, and always with the half because no one likes a push.  Your picks below, with a bonus 11th pick....

#15 Clemson (-10 1/2) Georgia Tech - We added this one as the 11th game because it was right on the cusp thanks to a Bama bye and 3 top 15 showdowns this week, and laughing at the ugliness that has become of the genius Paul Johnson is just hilarious.  But then, he is smarter than Dabo, and has owned Dabo (and Clemson) in their head to head meetings.  They've been ugly, but I'd still call them to win if it weren't for Al Groh.  But Tevin Washington is horrible, the talent gap is too wide thanks to Johnson's woeful recruiting, and of course, Groh.  So take the Tigers to cover.

#14 Oregon St (-15 1/2) Washington St - Oregon St has looked solid in 3 strong wins so far, and Wazzu horrible so far under the Pirate King.  It's in Corvallis, and considering how they've looked so far, the smart money is probably backing Beavers.  No one ever said we were smart.  That spread is just too much, and the Cougars score enough to cover.  Take Washington St.

#13 Southern Cal (-14 1/2) @ Utah - Tonight at 9:00 the Trojans and Cousin Vinny's kids get our huge football weekend underway.  Utah has fallen apart since joining the Pac 12, and Southern Cal still has Kiffancer.  So with the Utes struggles this year, and Lane calling the shots, this has a strong chance of becomming a HERPADERP contest.  We're gonna make a wild guess here, and say Utah's problem has been recruiting, and the talent gap between them and Barkley's bunch is too much.  Take Southern Cal to cover, but they're gonna make you sweat it out until after midnight.

#12 Ohio St (-3 1/2) #21 Nebraska - I'm not sure what it is, but that spread seems unnaturally low.  At home, you'd think the Meyer'd Buckeyes get a few more points than that.  Especially since the Huskers lost in Pasadena to UCLA earlier.  It's screaming Vegas trap spread, begging for money on the Buckeyes before the upset.  All that said, we wouldn't dare bet on Taylor Martinez.  Take Ohio St to cover.

#9 Notre Dame (-13 1/2) Miami - Catholics vs Criminals!  The exclamation point is ironic, because this game has 0 excitement to anyone.  Notre Dame as a team still lacks elite speed, and that's one thing Miami will never lack.  Combine that with Al Golden seeming to do a pretty good job so far making the Hurricanes tougher, and we're going with the U.  Take the points, and Miami.

#8 West Virginia (-6 1/2) @ #11 Texas - Wins in Oxford and T Boone's playhouse the last two weeks have the Longhorns hype growing.  But the Holgorsen has been killing it in Morgantown.  In a shootout game, the Mountaineers have more bullets, and a better QB, than whatever Mack Brown can trot out.  Plus, we're back to the can't beat an elite team version of Mack that we all know and love.  It'll be a shootout, and the over is a lock, but we're giving the points and taking West Virginia.

#7 Kansas St (-24 1/2) Kansas - This one's easy.  The Wildcats are good, and the Jayhawks coached by Charlie Weiss.  Take Kansas St and give the points.  Lock of the week (which is currently running 0fer).

#5 Georgia (+1 1/2) @ #6 South Carolina - Our score predictions have been all over, from here, there, everywhere.  But in spite of those predictions, we don't bet against our team.  Higher ranked team, getting points?  Take Georgia.  Go Dawgs!

#4 LSU (-2 1/2) @ #10 Florida - Two top 10 SEC matchups, make sure that beer is cold and the whole hog smoking, cause it'll be a long day.  The 3:30 CBS game (why they didn't do a double header we don't know) should hopefully answer a lot of questions.  Are the Gators for real?  Is Driskell a good QB?  Is Mettenberger?  The Bayous losing their LT Faulk was a bigger blow than we'd have expected for the normally deep Tigers.  And because of it, their running game got weak and Mettenberger doesn't have the time to go deep.  He can't go short, so their offense has been a mess.  Florida has looked like two different teams against A&M and Tennessee, but they had a bye last week slopped through Towson.  The under would be our true lock of the week, but we just do spreads not over/unders. Both teams are going to be lucky to reach double digits without a pick six or special teams TD.   Momentum looks hard in favor of the home team, but we're not buying Driskell yet.  That's not a problem though, cause Florida can just ride Mike Gillislee to a W.  Keep the points, take the Gators.

#3 Florida St (-14 1/2) @ NC St - We're not going to explain this pick, because this is going to be one of those inexplicable head scratchers.  FSU looks great, and has been rolling.  The Wolfpack are still mired in mediocrity (being nice) under Tom "Whole Milk and Toast, please" O'Brien.  The talent difference is huge, and everything else says Seminoles roll.  They don't and this is the stumbling block.  NC St wins, let alone covers, take the Wolfpack.

#2 Oregon (-24 1/2) #23 Washington - Oregon looks amazing, but that's too many points against a good team.  The Ducks go over 50, but the Huskies won't be far behind.  They won't win, but keep the points and take Washington.

*-Guarantee good in all 50 states and the territories of Guam, Puerto Rico, and the Marshall Islands.  Guarantee good for a grand total of 2 red cents for all possible claimants combined**. 

**-But only if I like you, and I won't because you are ugly, have horrible halitosis, and that weird allergy that makes going out to eat a giant pain in the ass.

1 comment:

  1. 6-4, and hit the first lock.